Thursday, September 26, 2013

IBM: A Road Map To Reasonable Valuation

International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE:IBM) likely isn’t flying under anyone’s radar. From its humble beginnings as the Computing-Tabulating-Recording Company in the early 20th century, this Armonk, New York based mega technology corporation has grown to a top 20 company in the world.  But even without that tidbit of information, you’ve surely heard about the company.

Perhaps two of the most well-respected value investors – Warren Buffett and Peter Lynch – have commented specifically on this company. Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway purchased 63.9 million shares or about 5.5% of the company in 2011 stating the following:

“I was late to the IBM party. I have been reading the company’s annual report for more than 50 years, but it wasn’t until a Saturday in March last year that my thinking crystallized.”

In an interview, he went on to describe that in his early entrepreneurial days he competed against IBM products only to be told that “nobody ever got fired for going with IBM.” Read more

IBM Is Undervalued And Revenue Could Grow

The last time I wrote about IBM (IBM) the stock was 42% undervalued. Since that time, the valuations have increased, and the company is now 35% undervalued. In this article, I forecast fiscal third quarter revenue. Also, there are some recent developments since the last time I published. Further, peer company comparisons of second quarter financial performance is included.

All of that said, I'm forecasting third quarter revenue to grow relative to the prior year. The increase in revenue could act as a catalyst to drive the share price toward its intrinsic value. A fiscal 2014 revenue increase could be the catalyst investors need to accumulate shares of IBM.

I'm going to review Accenture's earnings report this week as an indicator of potential revenue from IBM's services businesses. Also, IBM's hardware business may have continued its slump in the third quarter. With that in mind, I maintain my view that IBM's shares are undervalued and that the market will start to price in revenue growth. Read more